- Existing-home sales rose 5.6 percent in November from one month prior while new home sales increased 17.5 percent. These headline figures are seasonally adjusted figures and are reported in the news. However, for everyday practitioners, simple raw counts of home sales are often more meaningful than the seasonally adjusted figures. The raw count determines income and helps better assess how busy the market has been.
- Specifically, 427,000 existing-homes were sold in November while new home sales totaled 52,000. These raw counts represent a 7 percent decline for existing-home sales from one month prior while new home sales rose 6 percent. What was the trend in recent years? Sales from October to November declined by 16 percent on average in the prior three years for existing-homes and decreased by 13 percent for new homes. So this year, both existing and new home sales outperformed compared to their recent norm.
- Why are seasonally adjusted figures reported in the news? To assess the overall trending direction of the economy, nearly all economic data – from GDP and employment to consumer price inflation and industrial production – are seasonally adjusted to account for regular events we can anticipate that have an effect on data around the same time each year. For example, if December raw retail sales rise by, say, 20 percent, we should not celebrate this higher figure if it is generally the case that December retail sales rise by 35 percent because of holiday gift buying activity. Similarly, we should not say that the labor market is crashing when the raw count on employment declines in September just as the summer vacation season ends. That is why economic figures are seasonally adjusted with special algorithms to account for the normal seasonal swings in figures and whether there were more business days (Monday to Friday) during the month. When seasonally adjusted data say an increase, then this is implying a truly strengthening condition.
- What to expect about home sales in the upcoming months in terms of raw counts? Independent of headline seasonally adjusted figures, expect busier activity in December while sales are expected to decline in January. For example, in the past 3 years, December sales rose by 5 to 24 percent from November while January sales decreased by 27 to 32 percent from December. For the new home sales market, the raw sales activity tends to be busier in the following two months. For example, in the past 3 years, December sales typically increase by 6 to 13 percent from November while sales in January increased by 3 to 11 percent from December.
Source: NAR Economic Outlook